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“Climate Realism:” A New Old Debate

I have been intrigued by recent discussion of the term “climate realism,” mostly prompted by a new initiative from the Council on Foreign Relations. It gets at questions of what level of warming from climate change is inevitable and how the US should respond to such changes, primarily by shifting attention from avoiding emissions.

While there should be a robust discussion on how we focus our energy, as I have written before, any avoided emissions, even if (when) we surpass stated global goals, are still relevant in avoiding even higher temperatures and can prevent unnecessary deaths. How we shift our energy is important and while there may be a role for carbon capture and geoengineering, funding, time, policy, and more can and should be focused on prevention of emissions at the source today.

Since global warming was first brought up in the public sphere, there has been debate on responsibility among countries and concern over growing populations and future emissions. These conversations mean little to any given emitted ton of carbon no matter its origin.

See some fairly direct, but well-thought-out critiques of the newest initiative:

We Have All The Solutions/We’ve Been Duped

Sure, there will still be innovation in the future - lots of it in fact. But we have most of the solutions we need today to be fully electrified and powered by renewables and zero emissions sources (nuclear is an example of zero emissions, but not renewable). We also can cure many diseases.

The issue, of course, is allocation of resources and those solutions logistically - across time and physical space.

However, a more difficult barrier is, simply, perception. This is because we live in a capitalistic, consumer-forward society. For better or worse, that is the situation. The impact, though, is that we have discounted real solutions or companies have decided they are not worthwhile. That is how we had a Lyme Disease vaccine that was shelved and not put on the market. It is why people tie energy and water efficiency to less comfort and efficacy when it often is the opposite.

As consumers, once we discount a product we tend not to revisit it and may be quick to recommend others avoid it. Remember, it takes 10 good reviews to counteract a bad review.

However, many products continue to evolve - sometimes within the company they first emerged in or from others. Many people were burned - metaphorically - in the past by low-flow showerheads and toilets that…did not get the job done. While there are still products like that around today, there have been innovations that use even less water, but are more effective than even the original “regular-flow” models.

Professionally, I have worked across more than 500 multifamily buildings to install thousands of toilets and showerheads with intense feedback processes and mostly in senior living homes where comfort and health are even more tied together. Through effective communication throughout the process, and, importantly, good products, we saw essentially no complaints. The results were upwards of 60% water use savings and hundreds of thousands of dollars that would not have been possible had we discounted the broad category of such solutions for fear they may save, but ruin comfort and efficacy. I’m particularly stoked about a new vacuum-based toilet tech that uses incredibly little water but can take 10 rolls of toilet paper in one “flush!”

There are also regulations and behind-the-scenes solutions we do not even realize, but that businesses try to prevent. The hole in the ozone is actively shrinking, but many of us do not know that changes to products and services we use every day are to thank for that.

While there is often talk of negative climate impacts we will see in our lifetime - and arguably are seeing already - there can be incredible positive changes that improve our health and wellbeing, not to mention that of the planet, that we also see today, not something that only affects future generations or our children, though protecting their future is also important.

The reduced ozone hole means less skin cancer cases today and in 10 years. Have you had issue with any product and been told it is because of regulations that eliminated CFCs?

Even in the face of climate realism, assuming you are okay with increasing emissions, climate solutions have so many other benefits. Electric buses and electric stoves mean less cases of asthma in children. Electric lawn mowers are so much quieter and improve neighborhood comfort. That can be a huge day-to-day benefit. Tankless electric water heaters can save lots of energy and water and potentially even reduce leak and flood risk. They often can even heat your water quicker than water heaters with a tank, but many people assume the opposite and never consider a tankless option. They also save tons of space!

Behavior change can come from one person taking a/the leap and talking about it. There has been “a perceived tension between adoption of green technologies and the maintenance of high service standards.” That has been true in the past and may be true today with some technologies, but evolution has and will continue to happen. We must suspend or delay our doubt.

Commercialization of a product and the desires of funders have big impacts on what we have available to us - both as consumers and as businesses. Sometimes there is a “need” to rush to market with a substandard product. Other times, only part of solution is released to “prove” demand for it. Again, healthcare is a good parallel to climate here with private funding very different from government or university funding of a study or larger program. However, both systems still have requirements that usually push toward a commercialization that may not be in the maximal social interest.

While it is easier than ever to identify “efficient” products, we need to remind ourselves of two important things: efficiency does NOT mean scarcity or reduced comfort AND efficiency always means money saved.

How Do We Sustain With Age From Here?

What is one product you discounted in the past or have considered, but just need to take the leap on? Do you know anyone else using it? Start the conversation. Make the move.

Peace,

Kyle