I wrote a version of this piece in December 2024, after the election, but before Trump or the current Congress took office.

At the time, I wrote that egos and incompetence are the last whisper of hope for many facing down a Republican trifecta in the federal government. However, absences present another very relevant situation to consider.

In the 117^th Congress, 10 senators and 18 representatives missed more than 8% of votes. Only 21 representatives – out of more than 400 – and 2 senators voted on all matters that came before their respective bodies. So more likely than not, your rep and/or senators missed more than a few votes.

While sicknesses, family matters, and other important issues preclude members of Congress from attending all sessions and votes, these rates are egregious, and yet, not surprising.

While very specific circumstances, especially the distance traveled and time changes for some congressmembers could be addressed through virtual voting and hearings, as was explored during Covid-19, an absence is about much more than not doing one’s job. It leaves an entire constituency unrepresented in a conversation and erases politicians’ credibility on topics, especially when unexplained.

A handful of Republicans recently teamed up with Democrats to allow members who give birth to vote remotely/by proxy for about 3 months, but it was shot down by Speaker Johnson and others.

Vacancies Already In 2025

In the current 119^th Congress, lack of attendance could lead to very tangible shifts in power among parties, individuals, and factions.

New administrations often select among the legislature for fill their cabinets and other important positions as Trump has done. However, he pulled Representative Elise Stefanik’s nomination (my former congressional district) to be Ambassador to the United Nations. While her seat would likely have elected another Republican - though that is certainly up for debate according to Democrats - even a few months of a vacancy before a special election occurs to fill the seat would have meant one less vote for the GOP.

That said, two Democrats have already died in just the first few months of this Congress. That has given the GOP more breathing room on votes and further hindered Democrats’ ability to convince just a few Republicans to block some legislation.

Multiple members die each term, for a variety of reasons, though I’m sure not surprising to many of you considering the average age of congressmembers.

While both seats should lead to Democratic replacements, laws vary in each state regarding special elections to fill such vacancies, with much discretion given to governors.

Katie Hobbs, the Democratic governor of Arizona has already set a date for one, while Texas’ GOP governor has been holding out, depriving a district of a representative and Democrats of a vote. Again, these elections, or lack thereof, will not alter the Republican majority, but on any given day, with how many reps miss votes, one or two extra votes on either side can lead to a bill passing or failing. The majority is not a given on any day.

Rather than a special election, Senator replacements are directly appointed by governors, again with variances by state. In some they must select a person of the same party as the one who left the vacancy, while others give more leeway.

Mike DeWine of Ohio, considered somewhat of a moderate, at least as compared to Trump, had an opportunity to select a replacement for VP Vance who, while a Republican, could have been moderate and more resistant to some of Trump’s nominees requiring Senate approval. His selection, however, seems to be falling in line with Trump thus far.

Actively Seeking Higher Office

While deaths and selection to cabinet offices are warranted, to an extent, another major issue explaining/leading to vacancies is congressmembers actively seeking another office and running while still in their role or otherwise hedging their bets.

While majorities were not as slim in past congresses, they are increasingly so and that is projected to continue, no matter which party is in the majority.

As such, the impact of each member’s decisions becomes amplified.

The consequences are also much more granular than that of the whole body with one more or less vote on a committee allowing the opposition party to stymie completely or simply slow down judicial and other nominees in the Senate.

While politicians cannot be faulted for seeking other offices, times like these mean every decision may decrease the level of risk each party may be willing to take, softening or holding off some more “extreme” policies. However, small windows of opportunity may also exist to push through those extremes when the other party is down one member or not looking. With the existence of the thinnest margins ever seen that will only be further strained by career movement and other absences, discretion by politicians on attendance and seeking other office is now truly important.

Those like Rep. Spanberger of Virginia should be lauded for not running for re-election knowing they will pursue another office mid-way through term as she plans to run for Governor in 2025. In doing so, she did put her House seat at risk, though it was ultimately won by a fellow Democrat and will not lead to a special election due to a vacancy during the term. She could have run for re-election, been distracted from her work in Congress while campaigning, resigned her seat had she won, and ultimately left her part one vote less for at least a few months, if not longer, as well as her district without representation.

As someone who has contacted my congresspeople too for casework related to getting Global Entry and other services, I know that they do a lot more than just vote and blow hot air, but when they are gone, there are less options to go to. With the dismantling of the bureaucracy they may be even more important to build a relationship with to receive benefits you are entitled to.

Unlike Spanberger’s approach, Representative Chuy Garcia’s announcement that he would run for mayor of Chicago came just 2 days after his last re-election to Congress in 2022. Had he won, he would have had to give up his congressional seat at a time when House control was also incredibly close and every vote truly had an impact for Democrats. Other Democrats already declared just days after the November 2024 elections that they would be running for races in 2025, like New Jersey governor which will only strengthen the GOP’s majority, again even if only for a few months.

So What?

Should you care? I think so. Can you do anything about it? Yes….sort of.

I won’t pretend that we can change the system we have overnight or that things will be easy or free, but there are solutions and cynicism will do us no good here.

Yes, vote in everything you can. Ensure friends and family vote. And participate further by writing or calling your representatives (not just in Congress, but local and state ones too) on any issue you want, donate to campaigns or causes, engage in real discussions with others, and look for other ways to engage like helping others register to vote or encouraging them to simply vote. There are dozens of super easy ways to do this and from your own home like writing letters with organizations such as Vote Forward, Postcards to Swing States, Blue Wave Postcard Movement, and the Environmental Voter Project, among others.

Also, do not simply balk at the idea of running for office yourself.

Beyond these individual actions, systemic ones are needed.

Another barrier to solutions is that an inefficient and slow Congress actually can serve the minority party by helping prevent certain legislation from going forward. That status quo of no reform may just reinforce itself as benefits and consequences will be accepted.

Many recent votes in Congress have required bipartisan support and with both parties having members willing to buck leadership on various priorities, it makes the numbers necessary for a true majority that much higher. Coupled with absences, it means an even more gridlocked Congress than we may already be used to, again for better or worse, depending on where you stand.

Failure to properly show up in December led to multiple judges not being confirmed, despite their qualifications, and providing Trump with an opportunity to appoint other people for those same seats left vacant by both absent committees and the larger Congress.

Not Just A Federal Problem

Multiple states are seeing these problems firsthand as well.

Oregon Republicans leveraged absences in their State Senate to hamper the majority’s legislation, but Democrats have responded in-kind, creating new attendance requirements of senators.

The Pennsylvania State House has operated as a one-seat Democratic majority since 2022 and it appears that will continue. The Michigan State Senate will soon have a single seat margin like Minnesota while the Minnesota House is a true tie leading to a power sharing agreement among parties. A one-day absence, death, or an ambitious politician seeking another seat, leaving their current one empty, all may spark consequences never before seen like a change in majority mid-way through a term.

While absences and government inefficiencies are generally not something I find to be positive reflections of our system of governance, they can be seen as useful when impeding those who otherwise might implement policies one opposes.

With lots of handwringing over the outcome of federal races, votes still clearly matter on the local level. One more vote in a few districts in Virginia in 2017 would have meant they could avoid flipping a coin to determine control of the legislature. In 2024, that ticket splitter or a decision to turn out for a special election in a few months may have a greater impact than ever.

It is not a joke to say that a few houses on a single street in Minnesota voting could flip a district and in turn the entire State House and in turn affect everything from free school lunch to environmental policies.

Where Does This Leave Us?

Whether we are talking the presidential election or any other, your vote matters. I was not joking when I wrote that in Virginia they flipped a coin due to a tie in votes and that one seat, one that was not a “swing district,” but assumed to lean one way, was the one that determined control of the legislature. That coin flip affected marijuana legalization and much more. So next time you decide it is not worth it to vote, or think you know what kind of district or state you live in, think again. There is no such thing as red, blue, or purple when less than half of people turn out to vote.